“Vuhledar may fall ‘in the coming weeks,’ and Pokrovsk by winter”, – Financial Times

The offensive on Kursk did not help Ukraine maintain the situation on the eastern front, ‘where Russia is crushing’ Ukrainian troops. Vuhledar may fall ‘in the coming weeks,’ and Pokrovsk could be lost closer to winter.

This is reported by the Financial Times.

“Ukraine hoped that its daring operation would force the Kremlin to redeploy resources from the Donetsk region, but this did not happen. Instead, Russian troops captured several towns, advancing from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad and bringing the full force of the Russian army upon both logistical hubs,” the article states.

Some commanders of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and many soldiers see this as a consequence of the offensive in the Kursk region.

“Kursk was a good idea; it showed Russia as weaker than many thought. But we are paying for this [with a large amount of our own land],” said a commander of a unit of the Ukrainian ground forces.

According to Ukrainian military personnel, Russian troops have learned from previous mistakes. They avoided large-scale attacks with tanks and armored vehicles. “Their new tactics have led to recent successes in the Donetsk region,” writes FT. Small groups of Russians are difficult to target, not only with shells but also with drones.

Also, “there’s little Ukrainians can do about Russian attack helicopters and planes carrying glide bombs,” especially near Vuhledar, where the AFU “has no air defense,” according to the deputy commander of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade who spoke to the publication.

According to him, the Russians might have “a better chance” of capturing Vuhledar in the coming weeks. “We haven’t had rotations since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. We need a break,” said the soldier.

The deputy commander of the 72nd Brigade also criticized the construction of fortifications. According to him, what has been built since the loss of Avdiivka has been inadequate: “in open fields, far from forest strips, and sometimes behind hilltops, making it difficult to detect the enemy.”

“This is utter nonsense. We can’t get infantry into the trenches without any cover,” said the officer. He mentioned that the troops are forced to take shelter in bushes, which barely conceal their movements, leading to “senseless deaths.”

Commanders say that Ukrainian troop losses have increased significantly.

Yurii, the commander of the 68th Jager Brigade, whose troops fought but ultimately failed to defend Novohrodivka, says that the recent battles were “very intense.” “The losses are higher than before,” he said.

Yurii declined to specify the scale of losses but mentioned that his unit is in a shattered state: the wounded soldiers have been sent to hospitals and psychiatric departments, while the healthy ones have been transferred to other units.

The battles for Vuhledar indicate that Russia is constantly changing its approaches, weakening attacks in areas where the AFU deploys reserves and intensifying in other locations. “We see many encirclements forming,” the military personnel told the newspaper, commenting on the situation south of the Pokrovsk bulge, in the direction of Kurakhove and Vuhledar.

Pokrovsk, Ukraine, may be lost within two to three months, suggests a representative of the drone reconnaissance unit. He believes that the city faces the same fate as Bakhmut due to constant shelling.