Women’s mobilization in Ukraine: what consequences will arise if parliament votes for the new bill?

The key innovation among the numerous points in the new draft law, as written by Ukrainian MP Maryana Bezuhla on December 16, is the mobilization of women aged 25 to 60.

It is expected that they will all become liable for military service (similarly to men), meaning they can be mobilized at any time (currently, only medical and pharmaceutical professionals are required to be enlisted, while others do so voluntarily).

The right to exemption from mobilization is granted for having a child (if there is no husband or if he is in service), pregnancy, and having parents with first and second-degree disabilities.

Moreover, women can only be mobilized for non-combat positions (voluntarily for combat roles). However, Bezuhla has indicated that the draft law does not specify that these “non-combat roles” for women should only be in rear units. This means they could include units positioned at the front lines.

What will be the consequences of the decision to mobilize women if the Parliament votes for it and the President signs the law?

The most obvious consequence is the mass exodus of women abroad, which in scale could be comparable to the total number that left since the start of the invasion. This would significantly impact demographics (in the future) and the economy (immediately). The ongoing war has already led to a massive outflow of people from the country; many men are serving in the army or hiding from conscription at home, making it difficult to find workers in various fields. The decision to mobilize women and their mass departure abroad could dramatically worsen the situation.

Considering that it’s not very clear how to organize the military registration for all women, even after nearly two years of full-scale war, military commissioners have been unable to register all men. It would take years to register millions of women who have never been registered there. During this time, many of them, as mentioned earlier, will simply leave the country without waiting for the summons.

If the authorities intend to restrict women from leaving the country (as they did for men), this could cause significant social tension within the country, which is already growing due to war fatigue, corruption scandals, and the lack of promised quick victories on the front line. It’s uncertain whether this will result in political destabilization and mass protests (although not ruled out), but it might manifest as passive demoralization within society and an increase in depressive sentiments. People may resign from their jobs and hide at home with their families, resorting to various means to try and leave the country. This situation could lead to corruption on an unprecedented scale. Overall, the population’s loyalty to the state will significantly decrease. Sentiments favoring an immediate end to the war will grow substantially. Naturally, all of this will not pass without affecting the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian army. The realization that their wives, sisters, and daughters could be mobilized at any moment is unlikely to boost the morale of the soldiers.

Therefore, it is not excluded that in the final version of the draft law (which, by the way, has not been officially presented yet, despite promises made several weeks ago), the point on mobilizing women will be removed from the bill.

However, the mere fact that this issue is being discussed at all demonstrates the critical situation regarding the personnel composition in the Ukrainian army.