A maximum of 15%: The National Bank of Ukraine assesses the likelihood of a quick end to the war as low

The National Bank of Ukraine estimates the probability of a quick end to the war as low, at a maximum of 15%.

This is stated in the “Inflation Report” for January.

The most likely scenario (25-50%) is considered to be “an escalation of hostilities, further destruction of production capacities, and a greater shortage of electricity due to subsequent damage to energy infrastructure.”

“At the same time, there is a possibility that the efforts of the international community to reach agreements for a just and lasting peace for Ukraine will be implemented in the near future,” the NBU noted.

It is worth recalling that recently, MP Fyodor Venislavsky stated that the war would not end in the coming months. However, he also mentioned that “there are reasons to hope that we will finish the war within a relatively short period of time.”