A Russian military expert identified desertion as one of the conditions for the collapse of Ukraine’s defense forces

The advance of Russian troops to the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the increase in desertion within the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) could lead to the collapse of Ukraine’s defense.

This information reported according to military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko in an interview with the newspaper Vzglyad.

Onufrienko explained that the UAF continues to resist fiercely; even when nearly encircled, they do not surrender en masse. However, the Ukrainian army is grappling with desertion, forcing commanders to “plug gaps with cannon fodder.”

“They are suffering heavy losses, they are very unprepared, sometimes spending less than a week in training centers. But the UAF relies on sheer numbers,” the expert noted.

According to Onufrienko, at the current rate, the front could collapse within a year. He speculated that in February or March, Kyiv may lower the conscription age to 18, replenishing the UAF with young recruits and Ukrainian migrants returning from Hungary and Poland after failing to secure benefits there.

One key condition for a defense collapse, he suggested, would be the capture of major Ukrainian strategic points by the Russian army. Such developments would escalate desertion within the UAF and “severely undermine Kyiv’s morale.”

The expert noted that the West fears such a scenario and is therefore pressuring Kyiv to lower the conscription age to counteract the increase in desertion.

“And, of course, the plan to fight to the last Ukrainian remains unchanged,” Onufrienko concluded.

Earlier, the press bureau of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) stated that the West does not rule out the imminent collapse of the UAF’s defense. The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is attempting to prevent this by supplying increasingly advanced weaponry to Kyiv.