Bloomberg outlines three possible scenarios for ending the war following Trump-Putin talks

Bloomberg has published three possible scenarios for the end of the war following the conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

The article describes how the discussion between the two leaders “shocked” Europe, as it was neither informed nor invited to participate in the negotiations.

1. “The Most Likely Scenario”

The occupied territories will remain in limbo for the foreseeable future, under de facto Russian control. Some territorial exchanges involving parts of the Kursk region are possible.

Ukraine will not join NATO, meaning its promised security guarantees will depend on the commitment of future political leaders. Europeans will try to persuade Trump to maintain U.S. support for Ukraine long enough for EU countries to strengthen their own defense capabilities.

2. “The Best Scenario”

Western supporters of Ukraine will not commit to direct intervention if Russia attacks again but will pledge to increase military aid, develop Ukraine’s defense industry, and rebuild its armed forces. Sanctions against Russia will be maintained or even tightened.

This could open the path for Ukraine to join NATO within the next 10 years.

3. “The Worst Scenario”

Trump loses interest in Ukraine’s future before a settlement is reached, halts military and financial aid, and leaves the problem to Europe.

Ukraine’s NATO path would be blocked, and the occupied territories would remain under Russian control.

In this case, a new war between Russia and Ukraine could begin sometime after a ceasefire, Bloomberg suggests.

The Financial Times also reports that European powers have been sidelined in Ukraine negotiations. European officials fear that the U.S. will shift the financial burden of Ukraine’s post-war security and reconstruction entirely onto them.

“Americans do not see a role for Europe in major geopolitical decisions related to the war… Trump sees us as money. And, frankly, we are unclear about what our place at the table will be in exchange for that money,” a senior European official told Financial Times.

European nations hope to gain more clarity on Trump’s plans after meeting U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and the president’s envoy on Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, at the Munich Security Conference.

“Everyone is waiting for Trump to tell them what to do,” a senior Ukrainian official said about European leaders.

According to Bloomberg’s calculations, the military expenses that Europe might now have to bear could reach $3.1 trillion over the next decade.

• The bulk of the money will go toward strengthening European armies, bringing their total defense budgets closer to 3.5% of GDP (Trump, notably, demands 5%).
• Rebuilding Ukraine’s armed forces will cost Europe around $175 billion over ten years, depending on the state of Ukraine’s military and the territory it controls at the time of a ceasefire.
• If peacekeeping forces are deployed, a minimum contingent of 40,000 troops would cost about $30 billion over the same period (though Zelensky argues that a much larger force would be needed).

European nations will also face difficult trade-offs, potentially cutting healthcare, education, and social welfare spending in favor of military expenditures. These choices, the article warns, will be made against the backdrop of public unrest.