EU sidesteps Zelensky’s warning about 20 million refugees

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned European leaders that up to 20 million Ukrainians could flee to Europe if Russia wins the war, and demanded new funds from the EU to sustain the defense effort.

This was reported by Politico, L’Unione Sarda, and Yahoo News.

The statement was made on Friday, October 16, at the EU summit in Brussels. “Russia is killing us,” Zelensky told journalists, adding that Ukrainians are being “pushed out” of their country.

“What will happen if we fall? I don’t know how many refugees will come to Europe — 20 million Ukrainians. That is why we are asking you to protect our country,” Zelensky said.

Yahoo News notes that the figure of 20 million is Zelensky’s own warning, not a UN estimate.

A warning that sounded like a threat

Analyst Mark Galeotti described the remarks as “deliberately sharp, even harsh.” According to him, many perceived them as a veiled threat — conservative politicians in Poland and Germany took them that way. Galeotti compared Zelensky’s words to past threats by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to open his country’s borders to refugees in order to extract assistance from the EU.

When a European Commission spokesperson was asked about these comments on October 19, he declined to interpret “the intentions of President Zelensky.” The spokesperson stated that the EU’s goal is “to put an end to this war.” The warning came as Denmark, Italy, and Poland were pressing the summit to take a tougher stance on illegal migration.

Shortage of funds and weapons

Zelensky asked for at least another EUR 70 billion for defense and armaments. He also acknowledged that Ukraine lacks interceptor missiles for Patriot systems, saying the United States is sending most of them to the Middle East. Zelensky estimated the cost of waging the war next year at EUR 155 billion — significantly more than the EUR 90 billion EU loan package approved in April and designed to cover 2026 and 2027.

The current burden on Europe

According to Eurostat, around 4.43 million people who had been forced to leave Ukraine held temporary protection in the EU at the end of August. Around 1.29 million of them are in Germany, and around 939,000 are in Poland. Both countries have reduced support: Poland now links child benefit payments to whether parents are working, while Germany has restricted the granting of protection to newly arriving Ukrainian men of military age.

The UN’s International Organization for Migration warned that Russian strikes on infrastructure could push more Ukrainians to leave as winter approaches. However, the organization has not issued a forecast of a mass exodus on the scale Zelensky described. According to Galeotti, around 3.6 million Ukrainians remain internally displaced within the country. He warned that “if conditions worsen this winter,” many will be drawn westward.