Expensive and complex: experts doubt that Ukrainian lithium will be of interest to Trump

Ukrainian authorities have actively been discussing ideas to interest newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump in Ukraine’s lithium deposits, a focus that has found reflection in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan.”

As Yegor Perelygin, CEO of the Ukrainian mining company UMCC Titanium, explains, Ukraine’s lithium deposits are unprepared for development and have very high production costs.

According to him, Ukraine is offering “unprepared deposits with underground mining methods and our completely uncompetitive electricity prices.” This will not interest investors, the expert believes.

“The cost of extraction and processing under Ukrainian conditions will be significantly higher than in Australia, Argentina, Chile, and, of course, China,” Perelygin writes. Moreover, investments in lithium projects are extremely high.

“Even if mines and processing plants costing hundreds of millions of dollars are built, it will still be necessary to build electrochemical processing facilities,” the expert notes, adding that the cost of such a facility alone is around $1 billion.

He also stated that the most “adequate in terms of quality” Shevchenkivske lithium deposit in the Donetsk region has already been lost (the front line has essentially approached it, and Russian troops continue to advance – Editor). Even so, Perelygin notes, the cost of extraction at this deposit would have been high.

“Therefore, the thesis ‘come to us, we have lithium’ is fundamentally incorrect and problematic from the start. The deposits are unprepared. Competitive advantages are absent. Fundamental economic factors are extremely negative,” Perelygin writes.

He also points out that despite the boom in battery production, there is no shortage of lithium on the global market, and existing companies often operate below capacity.

According to him, even technologically advanced lithium deposits are idle due to falling global lithium prices.

“I can say that in the next 2-3 years, we will live in a reality of significant lithium surplus. Global prices will remain low,” the expert predicts.

The key factors contributing to this are an oversupply in the market, Chinese technological dominance, and the willingness of Chinese lithium-mining companies to “operate at a loss and push competitors out.”