If Trump does not provide new military aid, Ukraine will be able to fight until summer – The Wall Street Journal

If U.S. President Donald Trump does not allocate new military aid, Ukraine will be able to continue fighting at its current pace until the summer but will then face a shortage of ammunition. In such a scenario, Kyiv would be unable to use some of its most advanced weaponry.

This was reported by The Wall Street Journal.

“The large weapons shipments that the Biden administration has sent or contracted in the final months of its tenure should allow Ukraine to continue fighting at its current pace at least until mid-year (i.e., June),” said former senior Pentagon official Celeste Wallander.

According to Ukrainian officials, this is the “worst-case scenario,” in which Ukraine would have to significantly ramp up its own military production and rely on greater support from Europe.

“Overall, Ukraine currently produces or funds about 55% of its military equipment independently. The U.S. provides around 20%, and Europe contributes 25%,” said a Western official.

However, it is noted that some types of American weaponry—such as advanced air defense systems, ballistic missiles, navigation systems, and long-range artillery—will be nearly impossible to replace. Europe simply does not produce sufficient quantities of such systems, and in some cases, does not produce them at all.

Once these American supplies run out, Ukraine’s ability to conduct long-range strikes and defend rear positions will be significantly reduced, officials and analysts warn.

“Europe could theoretically allocate as much funding as the U.S., but I don’t think it can cover the full range of necessary weapons. In such critical categories as interceptor systems for air defense, a shortage will quickly arise,” said Oscar Jonsson, a researcher at the Swedish Defense University.

Some experts also doubt that Ukraine will retain access to SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet, which has been partially funded by the Pentagon.

“The issue is not just about aid, but whether Trump will participate in weapons production for Ukraine. If not, this will be a major blow for both Ukraine and Europe,” said Mykhailo Samus, director of the Center for the Study of New Geopolitics.

A similar forecast was given by former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. According to him, Ukraine will feel a weapons shortage in about six months.

“Trump’s most powerful leverage over Ukraine is the threat of halting arms supplies. In my opinion, we have about six months before we truly begin to feel a shortage of weapons on the front line,” he told Politico.

Kuleba did not clarify whether this scenario would occur if current U.S. aid stops immediately or if it will happen after the existing packages allocated by Biden are exhausted.

The report also cites data from the Kiel Institute, which shows that the U.S. has borne the largest share of Ukraine’s military expenses. From February 2022 to the end of 2024, the U.S. spent €64 billion on military support for Ukraine, while Europe—including the UK and Norway—allocated nearly €62 billion. Therefore, losing American aid would be a significant blow to the Ukrainian Armed Forces if the war continues.

Yesterday, it became known that Donald Trump is closing the NATO military base in Alexandroupolis, Greece. The base played a key role in the logistics of arms deliveries to Ukraine and other Eastern European countries.

Additionally, the media reported that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky allegedly “angered” the White House leader so much during U.S.-Russia negotiations that Trump was on the verge of completely halting military aid to Ukraine.