In 2024, the advancement of the Russian army in Ukraine sharply accelerated – ISW

This year, the advancement of the Russian army on the front has sharply accelerated.

This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War.

Since the beginning of their offensive in October 2023, the Russians have seized 505 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Of these, 300 square kilometers were captured during the period from January 1 to March 28. This is 100 square kilometers more than in the last three months of 2023.

Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) are no longer allowing Russia to achieve significant tactical successes. But delays in American assistance increase the threat to Russia’s operational success, including in a “non-linear and possibly exponential manner” – meaning breakthroughs in the front and swift advancement.

The situation on the front is exacerbated by the depletion of air defense missiles, which not only reduces Ukraine’s ability to defend its rear, but also frees the hands of the Russian aviation to strike with precision-guided munitions (PGMs) and possibly initiate large-scale air operations against Ukrainian rear areas and cities “with a devastating effect.”

“Expansion of aviation operations could allow Russian forces to significantly degrade Ukraine’s combat capabilities and isolate battlefield areas in support of efforts to achieve significant operational successes,” the ISW summary said.

According to experts’ estimates, Ukraine could overcome these vulnerabilities if it received timely military assistance from the United States and mobilized more people.