Russia is preparing for a large-scale spring–summer offensive, expecting major operations

Russian military command has begun preparing for a large-scale spring–summer offensive in Ukraine and is acting with future major operations in mind.

This is what Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets writes, as he assesses the current situation on the front.

In his view, Russia’s army command is currently forming and deploying large strategic reserves, accumulating operational- and strategic-level resources along key axes, and carrying out a covert regrouping of forces and assets.

Mashovets believes Russia is planning for a possible start to a new phase of the war as early as late April (noting that once trees leaf out, advancing infantry units can more easily hide from drones).

He names the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk axis and the Orikhiv–Zaporizhzhia axis as the most likely directions, or a combination of the two in terms of timing and location.

For these tasks, he says, resources are now being stockpiled and areas are being prepared for the deployment of strike groupings.

At the same time, the key problem for Russia, in the analyst’s view, is reaching advantageous starting lines—an essential part of preparing for a future offensive.

Units tasked with securing these positions are still fighting on the front line.

Moscow is not rushing to use strategic reserves to speed up the process, fearing it would weaken the potential of future spring and summer operations.

According to Mashovets, Russian command faces a strategic dilemma: either shift the campaign timeline, begin it with the forces already deployed, or take the risk of committing accumulated reserves earlier.

He links the buildup of reserves for a potential major offensive to the ongoing negotiations to end the war. In his assessment, despite the current peace process, the Kremlin may attempt this year to end the war by force on its own terms.