The Eastern front of Ukraine could collapse – BBC

The defensive front of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could collapse.

This is reported by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), citing expert opinions.

The publication references data from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which indicates that this year, Russia has occupied significantly more Ukrainian territory than in the previous year and continues its advance toward critical logistical hubs of the Ukrainian forces in eastern Donbas.

According to ISW, by 2024, Russian troops have captured about 2,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian land, compared to just 465 square kilometers in 2023—almost six times more.

Dr. Marina Miron, a defense researcher at King’s College London, suggested in an interview with BBC that the eastern Ukrainian front “could actually collapse” if Russian forces continue their offensive at this pace.

From September 1 to November 3, 2024, Kyiv lost more than 1,000 square kilometers of territory, indicating the acceleration of Russia’s offensive in recent months. The two areas that took the brunt of the Russian assault are Kupiansk in Kharkiv region and Kurakhovo, which is a gateway to Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Donetsk region.

Ukrainian forces defending Kurakhovo are currently repelling attacks from the south and east. However, the front line is moving closer, and the enemy threatens to encircle the Ukrainian forces from the north and west.

Colonel Yevhen Sasyko, former head of the strategic communications department of the Ukrainian General Staff, believes that the Russians are forming “powerful jaws” on the flanks, which will slowly “grind down” the city’s defenses until they collapse.

According to ISW’s conclusions, Moscow currently controls a total of 110,649 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. By comparison, during the first month of the invasion in Kursk, Ukrainian forces captured just over 1,171 square kilometers. As of now, Russian forces have reclaimed nearly half of that territory and continue their advance in the region.

The publication notes that the Kursk operation was initially a morale boost for Ukraine during a period of severe setbacks. However, Dr. Miron believes that while the breakthrough into Russian territory was a “tactical success” for the Ukrainian forces, it also became a “strategic disaster” for Ukraine, as it diverted Ukrainian reserves there.

“The whole idea was to possibly gain a political lever for potential negotiations and, from a military standpoint, to distract Russian forces from Donbas. Instead, we see that Ukrainian units got stuck there,” the expert said.

Miron also stated that Russia’s territorial advances in Ukraine have given Moscow a stronger position for potential negotiations, especially as Donald Trump’s new foreign policy team prepares to enter the White House.

“What Russia controls now gives them a certain advantage. If it comes to negotiations, I am sure, as the Russian side emphasizes, we will negotiate based on the situation on the battlefield,” the expert added.

“From the Russian perspective, they have much better cards than the Ukrainians,” Miron concluded.

Earlier, former advisor to the Ukrainian president’s office, Oleksiy Arestovych, stated that the front could collapse in 3-4 months if Kyiv does not begin negotiations with Moscow.