The former commander of Britain believes that Ukraine could suffer defeat in 2024

Former Commander of the United Forces of Great Britain, Richard Barrons, believes that Ukraine could suffer defeat from Russia in 2024. The defeat would not necessarily be a complete military rout of the Armed Forces of Ukraine but rather that “Ukraine may feel it cannot win.”

He stated this in a comment to the BBC.

“And when it gets to that point, why would people continue to fight and die just to defend something that cannot be defended?” Barrons said.

Ukraine is not yet at this stage, but problems with ammunition, personnel, and air defense assets pose a threat that Russia could launch a major offensive. The general believes it will happen “sometime this summer” with an attempt to break through Ukrainian positions.

“And if it happens, we risk that Russian troops will then enter areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them,” Barrons said.

The problem for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is that the Russians may choose the direction of their main attack, and Ukraine will be forced to defend the entire front line, “which they certainly cannot.” Whereas last summer, the Russians knew exactly where the Ukrainians would attack.

Experts surveyed by the BBC name three most likely directions of the Russian attack: Kharkiv, Donbas, and Zaporizhia. Kharkiv, the experts write, is “definitely vulnerable” due to its proximity to the Russian border.

“Can Ukraine continue to function as a viable entity if Kharkiv falls? Analysts say yes, but it would be a catastrophic blow both to morale and the economy,” the publication writes.

Regarding Donbas, specific attack directions are not indicated. But it is mentioned that Ukraine “oddly” defended Bahmut and Avdiivka, incurring significant losses, which it cannot afford (unlike Russia), according to experts.

As for Zaporizhia, this city is an attractive target for Russia as it allows it to cut off part of Ukrainian logistics across the Dnipro River. But the offensive here is complicated by the fact that it can be detected in advance.

“The so-called Surovikin line, consisting of three defense echelons, is surrounded by the largest and most densely packed minefield in the world. Russia could partially dismantle this, but its preparations would likely be detected,” the experts say.

General Barrons assumes that Russia lacks the strength to reach the Dnipro River, but it will achieve certain successes in the summer offensive.

“It will not have enough large or good forces to break through to the Dnipro River, but the war will turn in Russia’s favor,” said the former commander.

At the same time, Russia’s strategic goal this year may not even be territorial.

“It could be an attempt to crush the spirit of Ukraine and convince its Western supporters that this war is a hopeless cause,” the publication writes.