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December 26, 2023The prospect of a successful offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024 appears unlikely.
This information reported according to CNBC.
Experts predict that intense fighting will continue into the next year, but “Ukrainian forces are unlikely to initiate new counteroffensives.” Russia, on the other hand, is expected to “focus on consolidating the territories it has already captured.”
The outgoing year of war “undoubtedly depleted the military resources of the West and the political appetite for sustaining huge volumes of military aid to Ukraine.” Continuing funding for Ukraine in 2024 is “far from guaranteed.”
The publication believes that neither side will engage in negotiations.
“Both Ukraine and Russia are investing significant resources in the war, making it unlikely that any negotiations will take place. Military analysts assert that neither side will want to enter negotiations without a strong position to dictate terms,” the article states.
Therefore, the baseline scenario for 2024 implies the continuation of the current intensity of combat, where neither side can achieve significant progress.
At the same time, experts believe that if substantial weapon deliveries to Ukraine do not occur, negotiations between Kiev and Moscow are inevitable.
“Of course, Ukraine does not want to negotiate now… but given the circumstances, it won’t have another choice. Then the question remains whether Russia will be ready for negotiations—if signs emerge that the West will stop supporting Ukraine, Russia may see it as an opportunity to solidify its gains,” stated Mario Bikarski, an analyst specializing in Europe and Russia.
Retired U.S. Lieutenant General Steven Twitty sees two potential developments: a frozen conflict and Russia’s victory in the event of reduced Western support.
“If there’s no clear winner, it will lead to a stalemate, possibly a future frozen conflict. This balance could shift if Ukrainians aren’t provided with military supplies and the funding necessary for their equipment and personnel. Then this war might favor the Russians,” Twitty commented.