“The situation is very difficult”: What’s happening south of Kostyantynivka, where Russian forces are advancing

Over the weekend, the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) sharply deteriorated in the area of the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka highway, as well as further east, where a pocket is forming that Russian forces are trying to turn into an encirclement.

This is evidenced by data from the Ukrainian online map “Deep State.”

Ukrainian soldiers also confirm this.

Currently, the main development on the highway is the breakthrough of Russian forces toward Nova Poltavka, which, according to some Ukrainian observers, has already been captured by Russian troops. This village is located north of the road to Kostiantynivka.

According to a Ukrainian soldier with the call sign “Muchnoy,” the Russians effectively took control of two neighboring villages the day before: Malynivka and Novoelenivka. From Malynivka and Nova Poltavka, Russian forces are already advancing westward toward the settlement of Shevchenko Pershe, aiming to cut off the nearby village of Koptevo. Russian Telegram channels claim their troops have already reached the outskirts of Shevchenko Pershe, though Ukrainian maps do not confirm this.

A second axis of advance is moving north toward Popiv Yar, Rusyn Yar, and Poltavka — in the direction of Kostiantynivka.

Ukrainian military analyst Bohdan Miroshnykov reports that a Russian push toward Rusyn Yar from Novoelenivka has been partially halted, but states that “the situation remains very difficult.”

Russian sources claim their troops have already reached the southern outskirts of Poltavka and are closing in on Rusyn Yar.

“It’s vital to hold onto Poltavka and Rusyn Yar and not allow a breakthrough, or else the Russians could advance on Kostiantynivka from the west and cut off all remaining logistical routes. The road from Druzhkivka to Kostiantynivka would fall under heavy fire control, and the city wouldn’t hold out for long,” warns Muchnoy.

Russian sources also claim that the goal of reaching Rusyn Yar is to cut off UAF logistics in the Kostiantynivka area using drones, thereby severely complicating the defense of the city.

A third threatening direction lies to the east of the highway, along the Yablonivka–Oleksandro-Kalynove line. These villages form the “neck” of a pocket where Ukrainian forces are positioned further south, near Zarya and Stara Mykolaivka.

Muchnoy notes that the enemy is using large numbers of drones and artillery in this area and has already gained a foothold on the western outskirts of Yablonivka.

War correspondent Miroshnykov writes that Yablonivka is being attacked from Oleksandropol, which has become a hub for the accumulation of Russian forces. From there, they are also assaulting Zarya and Ihnativka.

Stara Mykolaivka, located within the pocket, is also under attack — Russian troops have gained a foothold on its outskirts. Nearby Romanivka is being assaulted from the south.

Russian channels state that Yablonivka is being stormed from the east and south, with fighting already occurring inside the village itself, which sits at the northernmost edge of the pocket. Its capture could force a rapid withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the impending encirclement.

It’s worth noting that in recent days, Russian troops have advanced near Lobkove in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as well as near Berezivka and Oleksandropol in Donetsk Oblast.