The U.S. and Europe have secretly agreed on the parameters of security guarantees for Ukraine – NYT

The United States and European countries have secretly agreed on the parameters of security guarantees for Ukraine, which are intended to form the basis of a future cease-fire agreement.

This was reported by The New York Times.

The matter concerns a package of arrangements designed to deter any potential renewed aggression after the war ends.

The documents have not been published, but according to the newspaper’s sources, overall agreement has been reached between Kyiv, Washington, and European capitals.

One of the key elements is legally binding security guarantees, similar in logic to NATO’s Article 5 but without Ukraine’s formal membership in the Alliance. According to the sources, the United States is prepared to submit these guarantees to the Senate for ratification, while European countries will formalize them according to their domestic procedures.

A separate classified document contains detailed scenarios for responding to a possible new attack by Russia. It outlines how the U.S. and Europe must act in the event of another attempted invasion. Sources emphasize that these are concrete and practical mechanisms, not just political declarations.

The deployment of U.S. troops to Ukraine is not planned. Instead, the U.S. will assume a leading role in intelligence and monitoring. American systems are to track compliance with the cease-fire, detect preparations for attacks, record possible provocations, and prevent escalation.

The European part of the plan envisions deploying forces inside Ukraine outside the NATO framework. These units are expected to be stationed in the western regions of the country, far from the cease-fire line, to provide additional deterrence. American officials told NYT they are “confident, despite Mr. Putin’s public statements, that he will ultimately accept the presence of European forces in Ukraine that are not operating under NATO command.”

The sources did not specify which countries might deploy troops in Ukraine.

It should be noted that the U.S. has not officially confirmed agreement to the deployment of European troops in Ukraine. Trump’s original plan stated that NATO countries’ troops would not be stationed in Ukraine. Moscow has already stated that any deployment of NATO countries’ troops on Ukrainian territory would be unacceptable.

Another element of the arrangements, according to NYT, is maintaining a large Ukrainian army. The documents set a target size of around 800,000 troops in peacetime, with ongoing support in armaments and training. According to the sources, the list of required weaponry and assistance is described in considerable detail.

According to NYT, these security guarantees are linked to Kyiv’s willingness to make territorial concessions and to abandon its goal of formal NATO membership.

At the same time, U.S. officials acknowledge that “the territorial issue remains an obstacle” (apparently referring to Ukraine’s refusal to withdraw troops from Donbas — Ed.).

Thus, the article effectively confirms the conclusion we made yesterday: that the Americans have offered Zelensky territorial concessions in exchange for security guarantees.

As a reminder, yesterday The Washington Post columnist David Ignatius questioned whether the U.S. and Europe would actually ratify security guarantees for Ukraine in their legislatures.