The United States suspects that the two largest Swiss banks are helping Russians circumvent sanctions – Bloomberg.
September 29, 2023The court in Kyiv has seized all the assets of the Ukrainian Member of Parliament Nestor Shufrych, who is suspected of state treason
September 29, 2023In the West, preparations are underway for a protracted war in Ukraine.
Kofman has evaluated the initial results of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine, during which Ukrainian forces managed to breach Russian defensive fortifications in nearly four months. However, they have not yet achieved a decisive success in liberating significant territory.
The expert believes that in the past, some in the West thought that this offensive operation would allow Ukraine to negotiate from a position of relative strength, compelling Russia to engage in talks.
“To some extent, this opinion has been abandoned, and it has largely taken a back seat. People understand that the war will be lengthy, and potential quick ways to shorten this war are now in the past. The primary focus of planning should now be on a longer conflict with various phases, as is the case in all wars,” says Kofman.
Other observations by Kofman include:
- If the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to capture the city of Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region during the current offensive, it would signify a relative success of the operation.
- Ukrainian forces have evidently breached the Russian troop defense line near the village of Rabotyne, but Kofman is not inclined to call it a decisive breakthrough yet. He believes that the Ukrainian army is “widening the gap” in the Russian defense but that the scale does not yet allow for talk of a turning point. This may change if the Ukrainian Armed Forces can introduce a significant amount of armored vehicles into the battle, creating serious problems for Russian troops.
- The deteriorating weather this autumn will not be the decisive factor that can stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but it will be significant. According to Kofman, Ukrainian military actions are being carried out by small infantry groups for whom muddy terrain is not a serious obstacle. However, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces want to rapidly capitalize on their success, they will need to deploy armored vehicles that depend on relatively solid ground.
- The possible provision of ATACMS ballistic missiles to Ukraine will assist the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but it will not be decisive either.