The West predicted the end date of the conflict in Ukraine if U.S. support ceases

Without U.S. support for Kyiv, the conflict in Ukraine will end by the end of 2026.

This opinion was expressed by Elaine McCusker, a former Deputy Secretary of Defense and now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, in an article for Foreign Affairs (FA).

“Without U.S. support, Russia will advance in 2025 as Kyiv runs out of weapons. By 2026, Ukraine will lose effective air defense,” the article states.

According to the former official, in such a scenario, Ukrainian forces will not be able to hold out. By the end of 2026, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) will collapse, and Russia will emerge victorious.

In her article, McCusker attempted to justify the financial benefits for the U.S. in continuing its support for Ukraine. Her main argument is encapsulated in the statement that “allowing Russia to defeat Ukraine will cost the United States about seven times more than preventing Russia’s victory.” The former Pentagon official sought to substantiate this claim with calculations.