U.S. intelligence raises possibility of Russian strike on Europe before end of war in Ukraine

American intelligence has revised its threat assessment regarding Russia’s intentions toward Europe, with agencies now not ruling out an attack even before the war in Ukraine is over.

This is reported by The Wall Street Journal, citing sources.

According to the publication, the threat currently remains low but is growing as the conflict drags on. American analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin could order an attack on Europe if he feels the war is reaching a stalemate. The focus is primarily on cyberattacks, localized provocations, and other hybrid actions — intelligence agencies consider a ground invasion unlikely.

Previously, even a hybrid scenario was regarded as extremely unlikely before the end of the war in Ukraine, as it would mean a direct confrontation with NATO. Intelligence agencies have now revised that position. According to their assessment, the threat will begin to increase in the fall and will remain relevant until at least 2029.

Against this backdrop, Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius urged the country’s citizens to remain calm while acknowledging that a threat exists.

“Any information reported publicly must be very carefully weighed. Threats remain, but I would not say that citizens of the country should be additionally afraid of anything,” the politician stressed.