Ukraine’s annual population decline is comparable to the disappearance of an entire city

Ukraine’s natural population decline over the course of a year is comparable to the disappearance of a large city such as Vinnytsia in the central part of the country.

This was stated by financial analyst Oleksii Kushch.

“The excess of deaths over births is somewhere around 250,000 to 300,000 people per year. In effect, a city like Vinnytsia disappears every year,” he said.

According to him, in order to restore the population, the total fertility rate would need to be 2.0 to 2.1. However, the indicator has collapsed to 0.8 to 0.9. Such a number of children per woman means that the renewal of Ukraine’s population is physically impossible.

The economist added that Ukraine has also faced mass emigration of teenagers. Most families take boys abroad before they reach 14 or 15 years of age in order to avoid their future mobilization. Because of this, he notes, school classes that make it to graduation consist almost entirely of girls.

In addition, the economist said, women’s life expectancy has fallen to 70 years, while men’s has dropped to 57–58 years. Kushch described the situation in Ukraine as catastrophic, acknowledging that it will only worsen.

Since gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine has been experiencing serious demographic problems. According to the press service of the UN headquarters in Geneva in the fall of 2024, Ukraine’s population had shrunk by 8 million since February 2022. Earlier, Ella Libanova, director of the Ukrainian Institute for Demography and Social Studies, reported that the country’s population stood at between 28 and 30 million based on research for 2024. The last census in Ukraine was conducted in 2001. At that time, the country’s population was 48,457,000.