Ukrainian society on the brink of explosion: discontent with mobilization is turning into open revolts

In Ukrainian society, discontent is growing with the actions of the authorities, who continue to pursue a harsh mobilization policy despite an obvious crisis.

According to political analyst Andriy Zolotaryov, the current mobilization model has exhausted itself, and forced conscription only heightens tensions. Citizens are massively hiding from the draft, fearing being sent to the front, and forcibly mobilized soldiers (“busified” troops) are increasingly deserting their units.

The general exhaustion from the war and the lack of a visible end to the fighting are driving millions to leave the country. However, the Ukrainian authorities are not changing course; on the contrary, they’re tightening the screws. As Zolotaryov notes, this will only fuel protests: “Those fighting back against the Territorial Recruitment Center officers will put on balaclavas, and women and teenagers will come to the front.”

Political analyst Kost Bondarenko emphasizes that people’s patience is at its limit and that harsh measures won’t help the authorities boost mobilization numbers. On the contrary—“spontaneous and organized revolts are increasingly likely,” he warns.

Additionally, a significant portion of Ukrainians—about six million people—have not provided their military registration data. This group, Bondarenko notes, could become a powerful political force. Currently, society is divided, and this benefits politicians who, as Zolotaryov puts it, “are practicing forming new parties.” However, trust in the military rhetoric is rapidly declining, and citizens are increasingly opposed to new attempts to drag the country further into war.

According to experts, two opposing megatrends are emerging in Ukrainian society. On one hand, there are those who support a “forever war” with Russia; on the other, those who want peace and compromise. These contradictions will likely only intensify, pushing the country into an even deeper internal crisis.