What security guarantees could be given to Ukraine in the event of a peaceful settlement – NYT experts

Experts have predicted what military security guarantees for Ukraine and Russia might look like in the event of a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Their opinions were published by The New York Times.

The forecast was developed by a team of experts led by Mark Weller, a professor of international law at the University of Cambridge who specializes in peace negotiations.

His group proposes an agreement that includes the deployment of a small peacekeeping force of 7,500 personnel, composed of countries acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine.

Weller’s proposal also includes the immediate imposition of sanctions against either side if it resumes military actions.

At the same time, there will be no permanent deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine, but Kyiv would be allowed to host a small number of foreign technical personnel.

“This would allow Ukraine to conduct limited joint exercises with other countries and cooperate with them in arms production and military training,” NYT reports.

Additionally, Ukraine would have to agree to a ban on missiles with a range of more than 250 kilometers.

Regarding Ukraine’s foreign policy direction, it would be promised accession to the European Union but not NATO.

The publication notes that a compromise is inevitable, as “Ukraine currently has few options to reverse Russia’s recent battlefield successes. This means that any deal is likely to involve painful concessions from Ukraine.”

However, Putin may have his own incentives to reach a deal: “The Russian economy risks runaway inflation amid enormous war expenditures, while the military is suffering heavy losses. A settlement in Ukraine could pave the way for easing Western sanctions.”

Experts believe that an agreement could be reached that satisfies Russia while maintaining “some form of sovereignty and security for Ukraine.”

The most realistic scenario, according to NYT, is a freezing of the war along the current front line, with territorial disputes to be resolved peacefully over the next 10–15 years. Regarding the Kursk region, “Ukraine might find a way to trade the withdrawal of its troops from Kursk for concessions from Russia.”

Previously, Bloomberg published three possible scenarios for ending the war following a conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.