What the Polish election results mean for the EU and Ukraine

In Poland’s parliamentary elections, the ruling conservative party, “Law and Justice” (PiS), lost its majority to the opposition coalition led by the “Civic Platform,” headed by former European Council President and former Polish Prime Minister, 66-year-old Donald Tusk.

Although “Law and Justice” formally leads with 35.38% of the votes, the advantage lies with the “Civic Platform” (30.70%) and its centrist allies from the “Third Way” (14.40%) and the “New Left” (8.61%). A possible alliance with the far-right “Confederation” (7.16%) wouldn’t change the situation. Opposition forces collectively surpassed the ruling party and its likely coalition partners by 11 percentage points, with 53.71% for Tusk’s party and allies compared to 42.54% for PiS and the “Confederation” (248 seats versus 212 in the Sejm).

This outcome can be largely attributed to record-high voter turnout in Poland’s modern history at 72.9%, exceeding the turnout in the first post-communist elections in the Sejm in 1989 by over 10%.

The Tusk-led government is expected to steer Poland back towards a pro-European direction, restore relations with Germany and France, and be less contentious on historical and other issues concerning Ukraine. However, there are nuances to consider. The presidency remains with PiS until 2025, and potential disagreements in the diverse new coalition may have consequences, including a potential dissolution of the majority and early elections.

Polish media note that none of the winning politicians in their post-election speeches even mentioned the war in Ukraine, which was a secondary issue during the campaign. This is partly because all parties (except the “Confederation”) support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia and all are in favor of protecting their domestic markets from Ukrainian goods, thus avoiding significant discussions on these topics.

Nonetheless, there are differences between PiS and its opponents regarding Ukraine. Experts widely believe that under Tusk, Ukraine’s relations with Poland will likely improve compared to the current PiS government, which has taken a harder stance on issues such as banning the import of Ukrainian wheat and making sharp statements about Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky. Tusk and his party are expected to align more closely with the EU and Western countries like the United States, Germany, and France on Ukraine and be less vocal about Poland’s “special” role in supporting Ukraine.

However, in practice, this remains an open question. Firstly, President Duda will continue to influence Poland’s foreign policy and security matters. Secondly, Tusk is unlikely to ignore demands from lobbyists for further restrictions on the import of Ukrainian food and similar measures. It’s worth noting that one of the leaders of Tusk’s party in the Sejm is Kolodziejczyk, the head of the farmers’ union “Agrounia,” who was one of the initiators of protests against the import of grain from Ukraine. Poland and Ukraine are close competitors on the European market, a fact that will shape the policy of any Polish government.

Previously, in diplomatic circles, it was suggested that Tusk’s victory in Poland’s elections would have significant implications for the situation in the EU and the Ukraine conflict. Concerning Ukraine, the consequences of PiS’s defeat in the elections might be similar to the resignation of Johnson as the UK Prime Minister. Poland will continue to support Ukraine, but it will cease pursuing a separate stance regarding the conflict. Instead, it will generally support the decisions made in Western capitals concerning the war. Tusk’s political faction, to a lesser extent than PiS, is likely to emphasize sensitive historical issues, both in relations with Germany and Ukraine.