‘Russia may continue the war for a long time’: the number of Ukrainians who hold this belief has doubled

The number of people in Ukraine who believe that Russia can continue to wage war for a long time has doubled.

This information reported according to data from a telephone survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology on “The Dynamics of Perceptions of Russia’s Endurance in the War against Ukraine” between September 29 and October 9.

Compared to February, there is now a greater number of people who believe that Russia still maintains a significant reservoir of resources and can continue the war against Ukraine for many years. In the winter, 22% held this view, while now 49% do. Conversely, the proportion of those who believe that Russia is depleting its resources and that the war could end on acceptable terms for Ukraine in the foreseeable future has decreased from 67% to 43%.

In Western Ukraine, the majority of residents (57%) believe that Russia is depleting its resources, but even in this region, a significant portion (37%) leans toward the belief that Russia has a significant reservoir of resources for a prolonged war against Ukraine. In other regions, the prevailing view is that Russia has a substantial resource reserve, particularly in the South and East of Ukraine, where the majority of the population holds this opinion, at 58% and 67%, respectively. Meanwhile, 32% and 26% in these regions believe that Russia is depleting its resources.

In terms of dynamics, there has been an increase in the belief that Russia has a significant resource reserve in all regions compared to February 2023, with the most significant growth observed in the South and East. In the South, the proportion of those holding this belief increased from 25% in February to 58% in October 2023, and in the East, it increased from 19% to 67%.