The American Institute for the Study of War warns of the threat of a breakthrough by Russian troops in Ukraine

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns of the imminent threat of a breakthrough by the Russian army.

The resource analyzes a statement by the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, that he recently visited “two brigades where the situation is gradually deteriorating and there is a threat of enemy units advancing into the depth of our battle formations.”

ISW also references an interview with unnamed Ukrainian commanders by the German magazine Der Spiegel, who stated that almost all Ukrainian units and formations are forced to ration ammunition and equipment, and in some places, Russia manages to hold back only until it “attacks with full force.”

ISW concludes that Ukrainian forces are supplied with ammunition more in areas where Russia is actively attacking.

“The statements by Syrsky and Ukrainian commanders suggest that the intensification of Russian offensive operations in areas where Ukrainian forces have not paid priority attention to the distribution of already limited ammunition supplies could lead to a Russian breakthrough and destabilization of the previously stable sector of the front line in a short period of time,” ISW comments.

Analysts believe that the current front line is “likely unstable,” and it is important to supply Ukraine with ammunition “to prevent Russia from identifying and exploiting the opportunity for a breakthrough in a vulnerable area of the front line.”

It is worth noting that Western analysts believe that without an increase in military assistance from the West and a change in Kyiv’s strategy, the situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces may sharply deteriorate by the summer.