‘The freezing of hostilities along the front line is the most realistic scenario for ending the war in Ukraine’, – Strategic planning specialist

The freezing of hostilities along the front line is the most realistic scenario for ending the war in Ukraine.

This opinion was expressed by CNN’s strategic planning specialist, Matthew Schmidt.

He taught this field at the US Army War College.

Schmidt outlines three main scenarios for the future. The first is Russia’s ‘unconditional’ victory, the second is the return of Crimea to Ukraine and the destabilization of Putin’s regime, after which Moscow might make significant concessions.

“The third, most likely scenario, is that hostilities could be frozen, and in several years, a political resolution might follow,” Schmidt wrote.

The expert avoids discussing the scenario of Russia’s victory. However, regarding the liberation of Crimea by Ukraine (scenario #2), Schmidt points out that it’s possible only ‘if Washington and Brussels manage to break the political deadlock and provide a new round of assistance and more advanced weaponry.’

But, the author considers a new offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Crimea as unlikely, ‘considering the exhaustion of Ukrainian troops and the risk that Kyiv won’t receive the necessary weaponry in time.’

Therefore, he considers a ‘more probable’ path to be ‘striving for a ceasefire that halts hostilities while preserving Ukraine’s legitimate claims to its territory.’

This approach is ‘less dependent on immediate deliveries of high-tech weaponry.’ It implies negotiations ‘aimed at prolonging the situation’ and leaving open the possibility of reclaiming lost territories later, ‘through a slower process of economic and political revival.’

Schmidt suggests following the model of West Germany, where the eastern part of the country (GDR) peacefully reunified with the FRG after 40 years.

“The prospects of economic recovery, EU integration, and official or unofficial NATO protection (in other words, the emergence of a renewed country capable of thriving within the Western sphere) remain the most likely way for Kyiv to win a long war,” the expert writes.