The introduction of the EU quota at 1.3 million tons and weak demand significantly limited Ukrainian wheat exports

Ukraine’s wheat market is undergoing a phase of structural transformation due to restricted access to the EU market and the reorientation of export flows toward the MENA region (the Middle East and North Africa).

This was reported by the information and analytical agency UkrAgroConsult.

“The EU quota of 1.3 million tons and weak demand have significantly limited exports, whereas previously Ukraine supplied 3 to 6 million tons to Europe per season. These changes are long-term in nature,” the analysts stated.

According to the agency’s estimates, grain shipment rates have declined substantially: while exports stood at 500,000 to 600,000 tons per month in winter, by early March that figure had fallen to 350,000 tons. As a result, stock accumulation is becoming a key market factor — carryover wheat stocks may reach at least 5 million tons.

UkrAgroConsult identified the season’s main trends as the formation of a new market model in which intensifying competition plays a key role, along with a shift in sales geography away from European countries toward more competitive regions.