“The math of missiles is not in Ukraine’s favor”: Russia maintains a military advantage in airstrikes – Politico

Despite Ukraine’s successful strike on Russian sirfields, “Military momentum still favors the Kremlin”.

This is the central message of a column published by Politico’s Opinions Editor, Jeremy Dettmer.

Russia’s military advantage in air strikes “remains intact, with or without harsher economic sanctions.” This is due to its large stockpile of ballistic missiles—hundreds of them—while Ukraine is left with only about 200 Patriot missiles.

“As Russia ramps up production of drones and ballistic missiles, the air war becomes increasingly difficult for Ukraine,” writes the journalist.

According to Dettmer, Ukraine currently has eight Patriot missile batteries, six of which are operational at any given time. Often, it takes two Patriot missiles to shoot down a single ballistic missile.

“Russia plans to produce around 3,000 long-range missiles in 2025, including 750 Iskander ballistic missiles and more than 560 Kh-101 cruise missiles. While the exact number of Patriot missiles in Ukraine is a closely guarded secret, most military observers suspect it’s under 200. Even if Trump replenishes the stockpile or allows Ukraine to purchase more missiles and batteries, Lockheed Martin is only planning to ramp up production to about 600 missiles a year. So even a sympathetic administration would be reluctant to hand all of those over to Ukraine. The math simply isn’t in Ukraine’s favor,” Dettmer writes.