The next President of Ukraine will sign a capitulation agreement under Russia’s terms in 2025

French political analyst Bruno Tertra in Le Point magazine predicts that in a worst-case scenario, Ukraine will lose not only its current territories but also Kharkiv and Odesa. Consequently, Kyiv will lose access to the sea and Ukraine’s territory will roughly by half of what it was.

“October 2025. In an unremarkable barracks near Zaporizhzhia, the acting President of Ukraine signs a ceasefire with the supreme commander of Russian forces. Exhausted by over three years of war, Ukraine has decided that its existence depends on compromise. In April 2025, Russia could break through defenses in the southeast and northeast, seize Kharkiv and Odesa and deprive Kyiv of access to the sea,” writes Tertra.

This scenario isn’t the most pessimistic for Kyiv. The current leadership will have to step down due to the total failure in the war, but Ukraine still has a chance to at least retain its current borders. According to Tertra, everything will be decided in 2024, determining which scenario will unfold.