‘Without a peace agreement, Ukraine will not receive any security guarantees from the West’, – former Ambassador of Poland

Kyiv is strongly demanding not only an increase in military assistance from the West but also security guarantees.

However, apart from silence, it hears nothing in response, and this is quite understandable, according to former Polish ambassador Jędrzej Marek Nowakowski.

In an interview with Wirtualna Polska, he explains that there is currently no public or political consensus in the West on this issue. No one wants to agree to any guarantees while hostilities continue in Ukraine, as it increases the risk of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Volodymyr Zelensky once again called for increased assistance to Ukraine and hinted that he expects security guarantees from the West. However, at the moment, it is challenging to talk about any serious guarantees for Kyiv.

The former Polish ambassador to Latvia and Armenia, as well as the head of the Euro-Atlantic Association, Jędrzej Marek Nowakowski, admits in an interview with Wirtualna Polska that unfortunately, such an idea exists. The diplomat refers to an article in Foreign Affairs mentioning the necessity for some concessions.

“Security guarantees can only be formulated with at least some agreement on a ceasefire. Otherwise, security guarantees would mean that we need to join the war,” he explains.

Nowakowski emphasizes in the interview that he is not surprised that Kyiv’s persistent demand for security guarantees is met with silence.

“The issue is not the lack of ideas. It’s about responsibility for words. If we provide such guarantees, it will be just a piece of paper. We will give guarantees and watch Ukrainians come under attack,” the diplomat clarifies.

According to him, if it came to a strategic break, promises to Ukraine should have been carefully prepared in advance. However, any escalation of the conflict would almost become a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. At the same time, he has no doubts that at some point, Russia will be forced to take a “break,” and this time could be used to somehow anchor Ukraine to the West.

Wirtualna Polska reminds that last Friday, Volodymyr Zelensky and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signed an agreement on security cooperation between the two countries in Kyiv.

In Nowakowski’s opinion, the British guarantees are too general.

“They want to present themselves as leaders of support. However, I am afraid that these guarantees are much weaker than those they provided us in August 1939,” the diplomat notes. “These are not guarantees but a declaration of close cooperation. Certainly, it is a step in the right direction. However, these are not security guarantees,” he emphasizes.

Nowakowski is confident that it is premature for the West to give any guarantees to Kyiv.

“What guarantees can we give when Ukraine is at war with Russia?” the diplomat questions.

“Security guarantees mean that we step in to support an ally. But since they have already been attacked, the logical consequence would be sending Polish, American, or other soldiers to Ukraine. However, there is currently no public or political consensus on this,” he explains.

“We will have to wait until this war is over or resolved, and only then think about such guarantees,” Nowakowski urges.

He suggests approaching this issue judiciously and formulating guarantees in a way that has a restraining effect.