Ukrainian air defense will not be able to protect key rear assets

Russian aviation will operate unhindered along the front line and facilitate rapid advancement. The situation in the rear is even worse. Ukrainian air defense is concentrated in Kyiv, where it may still partially counter missile attacks, while other cities are completely defenseless.

Reducing Ukraine’s air defense umbrella will allow Russian forces to exert nonlinear operational influence on Ukrainian positions both on the front lines and in the rear. Industrial facilities in cities will be left unprotected. This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War in its update from March 28.

Analysts refer to a statement by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who stated that from March 18 to 24, the Russian Aerospace Forces launched 190 missiles of various types, 140 Shahed drones and 700 guided bombs at targets in Ukraine. The renewed intensification of Russian shelling will likely force Ukraine to defend priority targets—populated areas, critical infrastructure and industrial facilities in the rear, rather than on the front lines, according to ISW analysts. Kyiv has repeatedly accused the West and even specifically the United States of not providing new air defense assets after suffering significant losses.