CNBC: the coming winter may be the toughest test for Ukraine since the start of the war

Ukraine is preparing for a winter that could be the most serious test since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, CNBC reports.

Experts and officials are warning of a severe shortage of air defense assets and risks to energy infrastructure.

In recent weeks, Russian forces have increased the number of missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, apparently attempting to exploit Kyiv’s shortage of ballistic missile interceptors. Ukraine remains heavily dependent on American Patriot PAC-3 missiles to intercept Russian ballistic weapons, although Ukrainian companies are working to develop their own anti-missile technologies.

Fire Point CEO Iryna Terekh called for a realistic assessment of the threat Ukraine will face in the coming months, pointing in particular to a severe shortage of air defense systems.

“Winter is approaching, and last winter was very hard for Ukraine and for major cities in general. This one will be no easier — and probably even harder,” Terekh told CNBC.

According to her, developing homegrown anti-missile technologies takes time that the country does not have.

“We are trying to compress a program that normally takes 20 to 30 years to develop into a few years, and that is not something that can be done three months before winter,” Terekh added.

Ahead of winter, Ukraine is reinforcing the defense of its energy infrastructure and building up reserves to ensure the supply of heat and electricity. The country is also seeking additional funding from European partners and attempting to put together a winter aid package. Analyst Serhiy Kuzan linked recent government personnel changes to the need to prepare for a harsh winter.

“Essentially, the government was reformed and renewed to restart institutional processes and improve coordination between various agencies. As President Zelensky stated, the main task of the updated cabinet of ministers is to ensure that energy and defense infrastructure is fully prepared for cold weather,” Kuzan told CNBC.

Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker is convinced that Vladimir Putin will undoubtedly try to use the winter to finally break Ukraine by depriving the country of electricity and heat. At the same time, Volker noted that Kyiv is in a better position to repel Russian ballistic missile strikes than it was last winter.

“Putin is on a long-term path to defeat. He cannot cope with battlefield losses. Ukraine is depriving the Kremlin of refining and export capacity, which is draining his budget,” Volker told CNBC.

In his forecast, Putin will continue fighting through the winter, counting on benefits for Russia, but by spring will face severe constraints.

“I think he will continue to fight through the winter — believing that this may benefit Russia — but by spring, I think Putin will face severe constraints in his war of aggression and will have to agree to a ceasefire,” he added.

Analysts view Ukraine’s recent attempts to strike key logistics hubs — in particular the retail giant Wildberries — as a strategy to raise the cost of the war for Russian business, in the expectation that Putin will be forced to come to the negotiating table. President Zelensky previously stated that Ukraine intends to do everything possible to force Putin to agree to end the war before winter. He also indicated that the prime minister should have a clear list of what the country needs for this winter, and that “every Ukrainian ambassador must understand what transformers we need to look for and from whom.”

Director of the Center for Energy Research Oleksandr Kharchenko expressed the view that Ukraine is not prepared for a rapid restoration of the energy system in the event of serious attacks on energy infrastructure during the winter.